Tropicana

Experimental Study · Consumer Research

Tropicana lost 20% of sales in two months over a redesign. We ran the experiment they skipped.

UBC Sauder Consumer Research ProjectExperimental Design / Consumer Psychology

20%

the sales drop after Tropicana's 2009 rebrand, in just two months

key findings

✓2009 rebrand caused a 20%+ sales drop in two months

✓Tested utilitarian vs. hedonic messaging against openness-to-experience as a moderator

✓Grounded in the Elaboration Likelihood Model

✓The rebrand failed by speaking clearly to no single segment

the full arc, 2007–2023

2007share declining

2008rebrand agency hired

Jan 2009new packaging launches

Jan 2009sales drop 20%+

Feb 2009reverts to original

2023back to #1 in OJ sales

2x2 experimental design

Low Openness to Experience

High Openness to Experience

Utilitarian Messaging

Central route (ELM)

Hedonic Messaging

Peripheral route (ELM)

2009 rebrand, before vs. after

100% Orange
Straight from the grove

before, pre-2009

Tropicana
Pure Premium

after, 2009

why i chose this

Tropicana's 2009 rebrand is the textbook packaging failure, sales fell more than 20% in two months and the company reverted. Rather than recap it, we asked the question the case leaves open: what messaging should they have run? Then we designed a study to test it.

the challenge

The rebrand lost brand identity on shelf: packaging read as cheap, the iconic orange-and-straw imagery (carrying the quality and freshness message) was removed, and there was no clear communication of natural ingredients or freshness, the equity Tropicana had spent decades building. The full timeline is above.

research

An experiment testing purchase intention against two ad treatments, utilitarian messaging (convenience, cost-effectiveness, health benefits) versus hedonic messaging (enjoyment, indulgence, satisfaction), crossed against a psychographic moderator: consumer openness to experience, split high and low. Grounded in the Elaboration Likelihood Model, utilitarian appeals route centrally, hedonic appeals peripherally.

what i noticed

Loss of brand identity, consumers no longer recognised the product on shelf.

Removal of the iconic orange-and-straw imagery, which had been carrying the quality and freshness message.

No clear communication of natural ingredients or freshness, the equity Tropicana had spent decades building.

the strategy

Treat messaging like a testable hypothesis, not a guess: predict which appeal wins for which audience using theory, then test it, rather than defaulting to one blanket message for everyone.

Hypothesis: utilitarian messaging would have a stronger effect on the Wellness Enthusiasts segment, while hedonic messaging would have a stronger effect on Proactive Families.

execution

Ran the experiment across the utilitarian/hedonic by high/low openness-to-experience design, then mapped results back to three real Tropicana buyer segments: wellness enthusiasts, proactive families, and busy on-the-go consumers.

Utilitarian sample line: "Boost Your Wellness: Tropicana, Packed with Natural Vitamins, No Added Sugar or Preservatives. Pure Health in Every Sip!"

Hedonic sample line: "Indulge in Pure Joy: Treat Yourself to the Sun-Kissed Flavor of Tropicana. Every Glass is a Moment of Delight!"

success measures

Purchase intention by message condition

Interaction effect between message type and openness to experience

Segment-level response differences across wellness enthusiasts, proactive families, and on-the-go consumers

reflection

The same problem as creative testing on a paid social account, just with a cleaner design: which hook, for which audience, and why, with a theory behind the prediction instead of only an A/B result.

Experimental DesignConsumer PsychologyElaboration Likelihood ModelSegmentationCopy Testing

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